The make-up category can be a hard one to predict, because the spectrum is extremely wide. Last year’s winner was almost a given with a nominee that had previously won the award multiple times (including the first ever in the category) heading up the makeup design for a (terrible) werewolf film.   This year is a little tougher with only one nominee having been nominated previously and comparing the differences in a cross-dressing period piece versus the portrayal of a modern historical figure versus magical creatures…and some questionable aging techniques.

Have you ever been standing in line at the grocery store and glanced at the tabloid covers that “reveal” stars without their makeup? Unpleasant, isn’t it? That’s the kind of vibe I get when I see Glenn Close playing a woman pretending to be a man in Albert Nobbs. Harsh? Sure, but looking at the character and the actress side-by-side, I just think she’s missing some eyeliner and lipstick. I’m sure the film also received its nomination for other uses of 19th century makeup and hairstyles, but I think it’s possibly the underdog in this fight.

I was a bit young when Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister, so I actually had to Google her to get a better idea of what she really looked like around the time The Iron Lady is set. Except for making Meryl slightly more polished, I’d say well done. Meryl has received her 17th Oscar acting nomination for playing Thatcher, and certainly looking the part only helped her performance, so should she win, she should certainly give thanks to J. Roy Helland, who is not only credited as her personal hair and makeup artist on The Iron Lady, but 34 other films as well.

Over the course of a decade, the Harry Potter series has produced a number of magical looks and yet this is the first film of the franchise to be nominated for a makeup award. What was so different about the final film that demanded a nomination in the category? Nothing really. Outside of a majority of the cast being smeared with dirt and blood due to battle, the only other noticeable makeup would be the gaggle of Goblins, which have been shown numerous times before. (If you’re wondering, Voldemort’s snake face is mostly CG.) Perhaps the makeup simply improved over the decade, because surely the Academy didn’t nominate the makeup department for the infamous two-decade “aging” on the Trio in the final scene. Surely not.

Despite Harry Potter bringing the fantasy element into the mix, which is often the popular choice, and Albert Nobbs sporting the only makeup artist to have been previously nominated (and won) for the category, my money is on The Iron Lady. Looking back over past winners, the Academy seems to really love a makeup department that can transform a star into a believable replica of a real life character (La Vie en Rose, Frida, Elizabeth, Ed Wood) and that tradition will likely continue this year.